I Just Watched a Publisher Burn $20K in 2 Weeks. Here's What He Should've Done Instead.

Last Tuesday, I got a call at 9pm.

It was a publisher I've known for three years. Good guy. Smart operator. Runs a 500K+ subscriber newsletter.

He was panicking.

"Chris, I just spent $20,000 on Facebook ads in the last two weeks. You know how many new subscribers I got?"

I waited.

"10,000."

That's $2 per subscriber. In July, he was paying $1.

He wasn't doing anything wrong. The problem is everyone else showed up to the same auction. Black Friday. Cyber Monday. Every DTC brand with a pulse dumping budget into Meta.

And here's the thing that really hurt: He can't stop buying. Because if he does, his list churns faster than he can replace it. He's trapped in a bidding war he can't win, paying for an asset that's actively dying.

This is what Q4 does to email-driven businesses.

I pulled data from 12 publishers we work with. Here's what October into November looked like:

One client told me she spent the same $15K in November that she spent in August.

Same budget. 50% fewer subscribers.

And it gets worse every year because more advertisers figure out Q4 is when people actually buy stuff.

Remember the guy who called me panicking?

Here's what I didn't tell you: He's not actually panicking about his business. He's panicking because his competitor just told him they're growing 7,000+ subscribers per week right now—in November—at a fixed $0.50 cost per subscriber.

His competitor is using Smart Feed.

While everyone else is bidding against Amazon and Walmart for Facebook impressions, they're pulling verified, active subscribers directly from our network. People who are already engaging with similar content. Already opening emails. Already clicking.

No auction. No algorithm. No CPM spike.

Just a fixed cost per engaged lead, delivered consistently, even when Meta is charging 2x normal rates.

Here's his actual results from the last 30 days:

Total cost: $14,000

What he would've paid on Meta at current rates: ~$56,000

He saved $42K in one month by not playing the CPM game.

Look, I'm not saying kill your Facebook budget. That would be stupid.

Facebook and Google still work. They're still massive channels. And when CPMs are reasonable (like they are in February through September), they're often a great acquisition source.

But here's what the smartest publishers figured out: You need multiple acquisition channels, not because Facebook stops working—but because it stops being efficient at predictable times every year.

Q4. Right before Prime Day. During major election cycles. Whenever every brand with a credit card shows up to the same auction.

The publishers crushing it right now aren't the ones with one channel. They're the ones who can shift budget dynamically based on where efficiency lives that week.

When Facebook CPMs are $8? Great, buy there.

When they spike to $20? Shift 40-60% of your budget to Smart Feed where the cost stays locked.

This isn't about replacing paid ads. It's about having options when the auction breaks.

Because when you have multiple acquisition sources, you get:

One publisher told me: "I still spend $30K/month on Meta. But now I also spend $15K on Smart Feed. In Q4, I flip it—$15K on Meta, $30K on Smart Feed. My total subscriber growth barely fluctuates month-to-month anymore."

That's the move.

They're not abandoning paid ads. They're building a diversified growth engine with multiple sources they can lean into based on efficiency.

Here are the three tools they're using alongside Facebook and Google:

1. Stop Competing in Broken Auctions

Smart Feed lets you source subscribers from our verified network at fixed costs. No bidding. No guessing. You know exactly what you're paying before you commit a dollar.

2. Turn Your "Lost" Traffic Into Owned Data

We built Smart Pixel because I was tired of watching 97% of publisher traffic disappear forever. Now you can identify anonymous visitors who never opted in and turn them into first-party data you actually own. One client recovered 12,000 identifiable visitors last month—traffic they would've lost completely.

3. Reactivate Before You Spend

This one drives me crazy: publishers paying $2+ for new subscribers while sitting on thousands of dormant ones who might come back for free (kind of).

Smart Reactivation monitors real-time engagement signals across our network and alerts you when your old subscribers are active again—so you can re-engage them at exactly the right moment. Costs you a fraction of a new subscriber to get them engaged again.

One client reactivated 15,400 dormant subscribers last quarter. Zero acquisition cost.

Q4 isn't going away. CPMs will spike every November until the end of time.

But you don't have to be trapped by it anymore.

The publishers winning right now aren't the ones with the biggest ad budgets. They're the ones who figured out predictable growth beats expensive guessing.

Because when you control your own growth engine—when you have multiple channels you can shift between based on efficiency—you can scale consistently, profitably, and predictably.

Even when everyone else is hemorrhaging budget into Meta's algorithm.

I'm opening up 5 free Smart Growth Strategy Calls this week.

We'll look at your current acquisition costs, show you exactly how much you're overpaying, and map out what a diversified growth strategy would look like for your list—with fixed, controllable costs that keep you healthy year-round.

Reply "STRATEGY" and I'll send you the private booking link.

(If you're spending more than $5K/month on subscriber acquisition and your CPAs have spiked in the last 30 days, you need to see this.)

It’s still the season to keep growing,

Chris Miquel

BEFORE YOU GO

If your emails aren’t landing in the inbox, they’re not doing their job. I’ve seen too many brands struggle with deliverability issues without knowing why.

The truth is, a few key optimizations can make all the difference in getting your emails seen, opened, and clicked.